Two purchasing managers at competing service centers face the same decision in September: buy ahead for Q1 demand or wait and see. Manager A reads industry newsletters, talks to a few mill reps, and decides to buy 60 days of inventory because "it feels like prices are going up." Manager B tracks the CRU HRC index weekly, monitors scrap prices daily, reviews monthly MSCI shipment data, checks import license data from the Commerce Department, and maintains a spreadsheet of mill capacity utilization estimates. She decides to buy 45 days of inventory because her data shows demand softening slightly despite flat pricing. Three months later, HRC prices drop $80 per ton. Manager A is sitting on high-cost inventory. Manager B has less inventory and lower average cost. The difference in their outcomes is not luck. It is information.
The Essential Data Sources
Steel pricing indices are your foundation. The CRU North American HRC index and Platts TSI indices publish weekly and are the benchmarks used for futures settlement and many contract pricing formulas. Track these weekly and chart the trend over the past 12 months. The direction matters more than the absolute number.
Scrap prices drive EAF mill costs. Track the AMM shredded scrap index and prime scrap index. When scrap prices rise, EAF mill pricing follows within 30 to 60 days. When scrap drops, mills resist lowering prices but eventually market pressure forces them down. Scrap prices are a leading indicator of mill pricing direction.
MSCI shipment and inventory data shows industry-wide supply and demand trends. When industry shipments exceed receipts (service centers are shipping more than they are receiving), inventory is declining and the market is tightening. When receipts exceed shipments, inventory is building and the market is loosening. This ratio is one of the most reliable signals of market direction.
Import license data from the Commerce Department's Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) system shows the volume of import licenses filed, which is a leading indicator of future import arrivals. High import license volumes signal increased supply arriving in 2 to 3 months, which puts downward pressure on domestic pricing.
Building a Market View
Combine these data sources into a monthly market assessment that answers three questions. Is demand strengthening, stable, or weakening? Look at your own order book, MSCI shipment data, and customer conversations. Is supply tightening or loosening? Look at mill lead times, MSCI inventory data, and import license volumes. Is pricing likely to rise, hold, or fall? Look at pricing indices, scrap prices, and the supply-demand balance.
This assessment does not predict the future with certainty. Nobody can. But it narrows the range of outcomes and helps you make purchasing decisions that are grounded in data rather than gut feel. Buying 30 days of inventory instead of 90 when the data suggests a price decline saves hundreds of thousands of dollars in inventory exposure.
Information Sources
Free sources: MSCI Monthly Metals Activity Report (members only but worth the membership), Commerce Department SIMA import data, AMM daily scrap commentary (free tier), and your own order and shipping data (the single most important data source because it reflects your actual market, not the national average).
Paid sources: CRU Steel Monitor ($2,000 to $5,000 per year), Steel Market Update newsletter ($800 per year), Platts Steel Trader ($1,500 to $3,000 per year). These publications provide analysis, forecasts, and context that raw data does not.
Free and invaluable: conversations with your mill reps, your customers, and your peers in the industry. Ask your mill rep about booking rates and capacity utilization. Ask your customers about their own order backlogs and project pipelines. Ask peer distributors at industry events what they are seeing in their markets. This qualitative intelligence complements the quantitative data and often provides the earliest warning of market shifts.